ReportLinker, a market reports database, published a report in October 2024 concerning the state of the US coal industry. It described the advancements in renewable energy technologies as 'a challenge' in spite of which 'the [coal] market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4.5% from 2023 to 2027, reaching a value of $45.8 billion by the end of the period.'
Metallurgical coal is a critical component in steel production and the US steel industry is undergoing a resurgence and accounts for the projected increase in coal production. Metallurgical coal, however, is responsible for 90% of the carbon emissions from steel making, and during its mining process, releases vast quantities of methane, equivalent to 988 million tonnes of CO2.
On the other hand, thermal coal, which is used in power-plants to generate electricity is under threat in the US with gas and renewables taking over electricity generation. But...'the export market for US thermal coal remains promising, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, where demand for coal-fired power generation is expected to remain strong.'
Without a steep decline in the production and use of coal, there is no hope whatsoever of reaching net zero by 2050. Reading the above would suggest that the US plans an increase in both metallurgical and thermal coal in the near future.
Table 1
Since the first COP meeting in 1995, annual CO2 emissions from coal have increased by 75%.
Like many of you reading this, I was utterly dumbfounded when the delegates representing rich nations at the last COP in Baku, Azerbaijan, stood and applauded themselves at the end of the conference. The world is on track for a sixth extinction event and those representing the nations who are largely responsible for this are congratulating themselves for what? Rant over (for now). Let me continue.
90% of CO2 emissions come from burning fossil fuels and 45% of that comes from burning coal. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that cutting our dependence on coal will have a significant impact on emissions. Across the planet, many countries are doing just that, turning instead to renewable energy sources for their electricity.
But shutting down a nation's coal industry cannot be achieved overnight. Australia is a prime example. Despite the tragic impact of climate change on the country including bushfires, floods, and extreme heat events,
the Australian economy continues to rely on coal for 62.6% of its electricity supply (2022-23). Wind and solar supplied just 24.1%.
Australia is the fifth largest producer, the second largest exporter and has the third largest reserves of coal in the world.
During 2021-22, export earnings from black coal totalled $113.8 billion, up from $39.2 billion in 2020-21, the increase largely due to Russia's war in Ukraine.
Around 45,000 Australians work in the coal industry, a number forecast to rise over the next few years.
The simple fact is that coal plays a huge part in Australia's economy. Employment, electricity generation, exports. Closing coal mines and coal-fired power stations also has a profound effect on local communities as the UK discovered in 1984-85 when it announced the closure of 20 mines. Australia cannot shut down its coal industry overnight. But it can and is beginning work to transition to renewable.
Any discussion of coal would be incomplete without mention of China. The country is both the largest producer and consumer of coal.
Figure 1
A coal-miner in Xingtai, China.
Figure 2
A coal-fired power plant, China.
While these charts paint a grim picture of China's reliance on coal, there are grounds for some optimism that this will change in the near to medium future. China is certainly leading the way on building renewable energy capacity, spending vast sums on hydro power.
However, despite President Xi's announcement at the UN in 2021 that China would strictly limit the increase in coal consumption from 2021-2025, a number of unforeseen events caused him to backtrack on these commitments.
Droughts in 2021, 22 and 23 meant limited hydropower;
A global energy crisis sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine pushed up gas prices;
Heatwaves increased the demand for air-conditioning.
As a result, there has been a new wave of coal-plant approvals in China. What's more, as Carbon Brief news organisation points out, China's fleet of coal-fired power stations is very young, averaging 12 years and only 1.1% of its units have operated for more than three decades, which weakens the economic motive for their fast retirement.
So where is the optimism in all this? Well, China is the world’s largest renewable energy producer and consumer. Its renewable power output nearly tripled between 2017-2022, averaging 26% annual growth during 2010-2022. China is already home to one third of the world's renewable energy capacity. Moreover, China dominates the global supply chain for a range of low-carbon technologies, from solar panel and wind turbine manufacturing through to refining of critical minerals.
Closing remarks? The world has unquestionably woken up to the threat posed by coal-fired power stations and in many countries, demand for coal is falling. But vast reserves of coal still exist in the ground, enough to carry on generating coal-fired electricity for at least 130 years at the current consumption rate. Countries sitting on such reserves - US, Russia, Australia and China - find themselves under enormous pressure to, on the one hand, leave the coal where it is, but on the other hand, to continue mining it for economic and employment reasons.
The hard truth is we have welded our civilisation so tightly to fossil fuels that cutting the bond is both costly and time-consuming, and time is the one thing we do not have.
Figure 3
Title photo: By Max Phillips - https://www.flickr.com/photos/98076023@N02/9304143669, CC BY 2.0,