Global coal demand surpassed 8.5 billion tonnes in 2023 for the first time in history. In 2024, this is expected to rise to 8.77 billion tonnes. The biggest challenge that man has ever faced in his 300,000 year history is cutting that colossal figure down to a point where the Earth's CO2 sinks can absorb coal's carbon emissions. Closing mines. Closing coal-fired power plants. Creating new employment opportunities for tens of thousands of employees who depend on the coal industry for their livelihood.

Why coal? Why not oil or gas? Fossil fuels are responsible for around 90% of global carbon dioxide emissions. Of that figure, coal-fire power plants (CFPP) are responsible for around half. It doesn't take a climate scientist to work out that closing CFPPs is the most efficient way of slashing carbon emissions in a relatively short space of time. Remember that if we stand any chance of preventing +3°C by the end of the century, then we must aim for net zero by 2050.

Aim for the moon, hit the ceiling. Closing 2,422 coal-fired power stations by 2050 is the moon. It won't happen. China, India, Indonesia, even Japan and Poland generate a large percentage of their electricity from coal. Moreover, many communities in these countries depend for employment on coal. Coal offers energy security at a time when, in Asia in particular, economic development is taking many people out of poverty. Just as it did in the affluent West. The key to closing coal mines and power plants is investment in renewable energy. Preventing +3°C is utterly dependent on it. So the race is on.

The world's top 8 countries in terms of the number of operating coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) are:

Table 1 - Number of coal-fired power plants

Next, we need to see what their dependency on coal is for electricity generation. Is this rising or falling?

Each of these countries has a unique mix of social, economic and political circumstances. They are all on the transition road, but none within sight of closing all their CFPPs. Briefly, before we look at each in more detail, here's the current position:

China has pledged not to build further CFPPs abroad but is building large numbers at home; pledged to reduce coal consumption over 2026-30; aiming to reach net zero by 2060; little reserves of oil and gas, so dependent on coal for energy security; renewable energy production is taking place at fastest global rate.

India is increasing its dependency on coal for medium term energy security; increasing population and development means huge increase in energy demand; 4 million people employed directly/indirectly in coal industry; pledged to have 40% non-fossil fuel power generation by 2030.

United States dependency on coal falling; Biden's administration set target of 50% emissions reduction from 2005 by 2030, and carbon-free by 2030; still 5 states with high dependency on coal; Trump's administration has taken US out of Paris Climate Accord and intends canceling commitments to reduce reliance on fossil fuels; coal closures will still go ahead but oil and gas production to increase; renewable energy industry rapidly growing.

Indonesia aims to reduce its coal dependency by 33% by 2040 but share of electricity from coal increasing to record high; plans to retire all coal-powered plants within 15 years but doubts over whether this is possible; rejected G7's proposal to triple renewable energy by 2030; prefers carbon-capture technology rather than closing CFPPs; proposing to mine all its available coal; investment in renewables very weak.

Japan imports 94% of its energy needs; 27% of energy needs met by coal; current policies set to reduce coal's electricity generation to 19% by 2030; G7 (Japan is a member) voted to phase out unabated (carbon not captured or balanced out) coal-powered generation by 2035 but Japan unlikely to achieve this; ramping up renewable energy deployment to 59% by 2030; potential to reach 90% by 2035.

Russia's coal exports have, as a result of invasion of Ukraine, pivoted away from EU towards Asia; No indication that Russia plans to reduce coal production/consumption with new CFPPs being constructed; Russia's national plans (laid down in the Paris Climate agreement) to reduce emissions by 30% below 1990 levels by 2030 is inadequate; coal reserves to last for 750 years at current consumption.

Germany aiming to close all CFPPs by 2038; commited to reaching net zero by 2045; 54% of energy generated from non-carbon sources in 2023. 24% electricity generated from coal.

Poland - in 2023, 61% of its electricity came from coal powered generation; aims to get 53% of energy from renewables by 2030; concerns over the remaining 47%; major concerns from coal corporations, unions and government over closing coal mines.

Figure 1

Click on the links below to learn more about the top coal producing/consuming countries and their transition away from coal to renewable energy.

TITLE PHOTO: Peabody Energy, Inc., CC BY-SA 4.0