Figure 1

Figure 2

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 not only threw the political and economic state of the world into some degree of instability, it also enmeshed with a global energy revolution that is seeking to decarbonise its energy supply. Central to this revolution is the transition from coal to renewable energy sources.

In 2021, Russia accounted for 15% of global proven coal reserves, 18% of exports (only Australia and Indonesia exported more) and 5% of production. But COVID and war had an immediate impact on these numbers. Following COVID, the economic recovery boosted coal production and consumption particularly in China and India. In 2022, sanctions against Russian gas meant that several EU countries had to re-open coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) or extend the life of plants scheduled for closure. In addition, as a result of sanctions against Russian coal, they had to find new sources and Australia, Indonesia, Colombia and South Africa were only to happy to oblige.

Russia therefore had to find new markets for its coal, and turned to Asia. Now China, India, Turkey and South Korea are the main importers of its coal. It's cheaper for China to buy coal from Russia than mine its own reserves. As a result, 45% of Russia's coal exports went to China, 18% to India.

But, as mentioned above, the global energy landscape is changing fast. Is Russia responding to this change? According to Makarov et al., meeting the emissions targets under the Paris Agreement would cut Russian coal exports by 75 % between 2020 and 2050 and reduce Russian gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.5 %. You might therefore expect the Russian energy ministry to rapidly embark on a transition to renewable energy since demand for coal is destined to fall over the next 30 years. So is this happening?

Figure 3

Table 1

With the exception of hydroelectric, Russia's renewable energy industry is almost non-existent. The reason for this is clearly explained in Indra Overland and Julia Loginova's excellent paper in Energy Research & Social Science:

'Russian strategic coal policy pays scant attention to the global energy transition, low-carbon innovations and evolving climate policy in the countries that import Russian coal. Russia's recent commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060 and their 2050 'Low Carbon Strategy' highlight the need to replace some coal power generation with low-carbon technologies. However, the associated action plan has not been adopted yet. The lack of attention to the global energy transition aligns with the widespread climate scepticism among the Russian economic and political elites and academics. Major sceptical discourses are centred on climate policy posing risks to economic growth, the science of climate change as an anti-Russian conspiracy and risks associated with international carbon payments. Renewable energy, and environmental issues more broadly, matter only as long as they serve as a tool to enhance regime legitimacy or act as a public relations or foreign policy issue and allow Russia to remain an important energy power.'

With 65 operating CFPPs and clearly no intention of reducing its own dependence on coal, Russian industry will remain a major carbon-emitter in the short term at least. But coal's days are numbered. Russia's gas reserves are also vast - it ranks 1st in the world. This assures it a degree of energy security, but while the world around it becomes fossil-fuel free, Russia will resist and is highly unlikely to reach net-zero by 2050.

For a detailed picture of Russia's progress in implementing policies whuich will lead to net zero by 2050, visit Climate Action Tracker's Russian Federation page here. It does not make encouraging reading.

Click on the links below to learn more about the top coal producing/consuming countries and their transition away from coal to renewable energy.

TITLE PAGE: Institute of Economics and Management in Industry,2001.