Title photo: On November 5, 2017, at the beginning of COP 23, the activist organization Attac and the alliance Ende Gelände 2017 demonstrated against coal-fired power generation.
The contrasts between the transition strategies adopted by the eight countries selected for these case studies because of their high dependence on coal could not be greater. It is not entirely surprising, given their advanced economy and inherent wealth, that Germany adopted at the earliest opportunity (2018) an inclusive coal phase-out plan. Inclusive because a wide range of stakeholders were involved: Environmental NGOs, Industry associations, Trade unions, Research institutes, Affected communities, and The scientific community.
The Coal Phase Out Act established a roadmap for the phase out of coal-fired powerplants (CFPPs). The available plants would decrease to 30 GW by 2022 (15 GW hardcoal-fired and 15 GW lignite), from the currently operational 38 GW. By 2030, only 8 GW of coal and 9 GW of lignite power plants are expected to remain. Coal will be completely phased-out by 2038, but the deadline could be brought forward by as much as three years, depending on progress.
Back in 2018, hard coal and lignite still accounted for 33% of Germany’s primary energy production. 32,800 people were directly employed in the lignite and hard coal sectors. Estimates of people employed along coal value chains ranged from 60,000 to 86,000 people. Phasing out coal was going to be a costly process and so it is proving. In June 2018, the federal government set up the Commission for Growth, Structural Change and Employment to build a consensus on the phase-out of coal and promote a just transition with as little social and economic fallout as possible. The recommended measures were as follows:
Supporting workers through a variety of social and labor measures, including training and internal recruitment, as well as early retirement for employees aged 58 and older, including covering pension deficits paid by an adjustment fund; the total cost was estimated at 5 billion to 7 billion euros ($5.7 billion to $8 billion).
Involvement of unions, businesses and the government to reach socially acceptable collective agreements.
Compensation mechanisms to hold down electricity prices, at a projected cost of 16 billion to 32 billion euros between 2023 and 2038, to ensure that the cost of phasing out coal-powered electricity generation is not passed on to consumers.
A dialogue between state governments and residents in mining regions to adjust open-cast mining plans.
Compensation payments to power plant operators, at an estimated cost of 5 billion to 10 billion euros for decommissioning power plants.
So what impact has the Coal Phase Out Act had on Germany's dependence on coal?
Figure 1
Figure 2
It's clear from Figures 1 and 2 that both production and consumption of coal have fallen considerably since 2018. There has been considerable criticism of the target date - 2038 - for the closure of all CFPPs which will not guarantee Germany reaching net zero by 2050. In 2023, coal still provided 27% of Germany's electricity production. However, renewable-sourced electricity is on the rise with wind turbine farms very much in the lead.
Figure 3
Table 1
Germany achieved a record share of wind and solar in its electricity mix over the first nine months of 2024, exceeding fossil fuels for the first time. In fact it accounted for 26% of EU wind generation growth. Germany’s 2030 wind capacity target is the third highest in the world, aiming to reach 145 GW of wind capacity installed by 2030. Only China (800 GW) and the US (369 GW) have higher targets. The pace of wind additions is expected to accelerate as measures introduced to tackle 'permitting delays' and excessive bureaucracy take effect. Many of these measures originate from the EU emergency permitting regulation.
The German government has declared renewables to be in the overriding public interest, a privileged legal status which unlocks faster permitting and simplified procedures. Furthermore, German states are now required to allocate around 2% of their land for wind turbines.
The blemish in an otherwise encouraging picture, however, is that coal-free target date of 2038. Has Germany compromised its rate of CFPP closures to passify the coal industry and all those who work in it? Or are they simply worried that, without huge advances in electricity storage technology, renewable energy - wind and solar - is subject to the vagaries of the weather and is simply not reliable enough to satisfy day-to-day demand?
TITLE PHOTO: By Ende Gelände - Ende_Gelände_2017_CHB_23,