Almost 30% of transport carbon emissions come from road freight transport; that's 8% of total global emissions. The journey to net zero must therefore include electrification of a significant proportion of vans and lorries on our roads. So what progress in 2025?

According to the International Energy Agency, sales of medium- and heavy-duty electric trucks are on the rise:

"Sales of electric trucks increased 35% in 2023 compared to 2022, meaning that total sales of electric trucks surpassed electric buses for the first time, at around 54 000. China is the leading market for electric trucks, accounting for 70% of global sales in 2023, but down from 85% in 2022. In Europe, electric truck sales increased almost threefold in 2023 to reach more than 10 000 (>1.5% sales share). The United States also saw a threefold increase, though electric truck sales reached just 1,200, less than 0.1% of total truck sales.

Electric truck sales are expected to continue to increase thanks to strong and ambitious policies, such as the European Union’s CO2 standards for HDVs (heavy duty vehicles), which target a 90% CO2 emissions reduction by 2040. In the United States, the newly adopted heavy-duty emissions regulation is expected to result in ZEV (zero emission vehicle) sales shares of up to 60% by 2032 in different segments.

At the city-level, zero emissions (or “green”) zones for freight, are being implemented in 15 different cities as diverse as London, Los Angeles, Madrid, Quito, Shenzhen, Seoul and Taoyuan City. Together, these cities have a total population of over 52 million. In addition, initiatives such as EV100+, the Global Memorandum of Understanding on Zero-Emission Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles co-led by Drive to Zero, the European Clean Trucking Alliance, the eTransport coalition, the First Movers Coalition–Trucking, and the Fleet Electrification Coalition have increased their membership. They continue to advocate for more ambitious policies, such as accelerated sales targets and zero emission government fleets."

The cost of batteries has been a major obstacle to e-truck development as well as the range limitation and recharging times - the infamous trio of vehicle electrification hurdles. However, there are solutions in the pipeline:

• battery cost is falling every month owing to technological advances in the energy density, and a drop in the cost of battery metals, in particular lithium and cobalt.

• fast-charging potential means trucks can charge overnight or at destination points before returning to base. This latter would also increase range.

• major trunk roads could be equipped with overhead cables to power the vehicle, saving battery power for travel on minor roads.

While much of the above points to progress in truck electrification, the fact is that as of 2025, sales of electric trucks compared to their polluting counterparts are still very low . Moreover, manufacture and sales outside of the three main players - China, Europe and the US - is almost non-existent. The situation in India is indicative of the slow progress in developing countries where lack of investment is hampering the transition from diesel. While the Indian government aims to achieve a 'significant percentage' of electric commercial vehicles by 2030, including a substantial portion of heavy-duty trucks, it doesn't specify exactly how it's going to achieve that. India's E-FAST (Electric Freight Accelerator for Sustainable Transport) initiative working alongside (ZEV-EMI) Zero Emission Vehicles Emerging Markets Initiative has signaled demand for more than 5,000 electric trucks (e-trucks) by 2027 and around 7,700 e-trucks by 2030. This is a tiny fraction of India's commercial vehicle total which numbers in excess of one million and will have almost no impact on India's carbon emissions by 2030.

Major progress on the electrification of road freight will, for the foreseeable future, be the preserve of China, the EU and the US and while that is progress, it is not enough to impact on the Keeling CO2 curve. It is difficult to see how developing nations can possibly afford the massive upfront costs associated with replacing tens of thousands of medium and heavy-duty trucks with e-trucks, together with the recharging and servicing infrastructure needed to keep them running.

China's BYD will almost certainly expand into Africa having already set up operations in Camaçari, Brazil where it makes electric cars (with fuel-flex hybrid engines capable of using Brazil's ethanol/diesel mix), e-buses and chasis for e-trucks. Now it's looking to move into Mexico to supply South, Central and North America. Of BYD's 600,000 employees worldwide, a staggering 15% are researchers or engineers involved in the development of new technologies. The company has taken over from Tesla as the world's leading supplier of EVs and is well on track to be the world's leading supplier of e-buses and e-trucks. Motor manufacturers around the globe may resent the phenomenal growth of BYD (they made 1.7 million EVs in 2024) but their contribution to electrifying vehicle transport is unrivalled.