ELECTRIFICATION OF ROAD PASSENGER TRANSPORT
The BYD Seal was announced in China in May 2022. As of January 2025, BYD have sold 389,339 e-cars in the Seal family.
Figure 1
China and Norway are two countries who have taught the world how to transition from ICEVs (internal combustion engine vehicles) to EVs (electric vehicles). So, China first. How have they become the dominant global force in the EV market? By 2023, EV sales in China accounted for 38% of all car sales, up from 29% in 2022. Compare that 2023 figure with 22.7% in the EU, 16.5% in the UK and just 7.6% in the US.
Figure 2
There is nothing surprising about the uptake of EVs in China. The government anticipated the oncoming surge in transport electrification ten years ago and acted accordingly leaving Europe and the US in their wake. China’s NEV (new electric vehicle) mandate, introduced in 2018, requires automakers to produce more EVs, aiming for 20% by 2025. China heavily subsidised the cost of EVs by way of tax exemptions, and invested heavily in charging stations. It's mandatory for new communities (housing estates) to have a charging station.
As for the future, China aims to have 25% of its car fleet electrified by this year (2025) and 80 million EVs by 2030. China's dependence on fossil fuels for the generation of electricity is a major hurdle to reaching net zero. Reducing its oil imports as the transport fleet becomes electrified is a major part of its strategy towards this goal. In addition, air quality in many of China's cities is frequently extremely poor owing to the concentration of ICEVs. EVs will make a welcome change to the 943 million Chinese living in urban areas.
So what of Norway? In 2023, 82.4% of private vehicles bought in Norway were electric, a greater percentage than any other country. In January 2024, the figure was 92.1% and the goal for 2025 is to hit 100%. Compare that with the UK where, in January 2024, just 14.7% of new cars were electric. So, Norwegians are all very environmentally aware, yes? They are prepared to sacrifice a few home comforts and spend the money on an EV instead, yes?
No. They are no more 'green' than the average European. In fact, Norway's wealth derives from oil and gas which account for 24% of GDP and 52% of exports. The rapid growth in EV car sales from as early as 2012 (see Fig.3) was simply down to a mix of top-down politics and bottom-up civil society pressure. Norway is a small country with active collaboration between government and society. It isn't difficult to get things done. Norwegians love driving EVs and the government made it financially beneficial to do so. No purchase tax, VAT, road tax, parking fees, bridge tolls; and EVs can use bus lanes (which are now becoming clogged with EVs!)
Figure 3
Globally, sales of EVs are increasing but remain concentrated in just three markets - 60% of new EV registrations were in China, 25% in Europe and 10% in the US. Just 5% of sales was spread around the rest of the world. That doesn't mean EVs aren't happening elsewhere. Emerging markets in developing countries are starting to see EV growth, but from a very low starting point. India is a good example. Electric car registrations were up 70% year-on-year to 80 000, compared to a growth rate of under 10% for total car sales. Around 2% of all cars sold were electric. In a country with a population of 1.4 billion, there are 185 two-wheelers and 34 cars for every 1000 people in the country. Personal cars are not the most common means of passenger transport. Instead, the far cheaper option of shared vans and minibuses, or two- and three-wheelers which are often electrified, are infinitely preferable/accessible to those on lower incomes, something mirrored throughout the world's developing countries. And most importantly from an emissions point of view, these forms of transport have a lower carbon footprint than ICEVs.
In Latin America, EV sales are starting to take off with 90,000 sold in 2023 with the majority of these coming from China. (Am I mistaken, or is this a repeating theme?) BYD, China's top manufacturer of EVs, is investing over 600 million USD in its electric car plant in Brazil – its first outside Asia – for an annual capacity of 150 000 vehicles.
Throughout Africa, Eurasia and the Middle East, electric cars are still rare, accounting for less than 1% of total car sales. Until there are significant government subsidies in these countries, the proportion of EVs to ICEVs will remain very low. China is poised to set up domestic EV manufacturing across the region but it will be some years before Africa's 50 million petrol/diesel cars (a number growing by almost 1 million annually) are replaced by EVs.
The electrification of buses is a huge step towards net zero transport. The carbon footprint per passenger of diesel buses is already very low - 27g/km. Electrification would reduce that still further. Is it happening?
Despite the clear operating cost benefits, the upfront costs of electric buses are significantly higher than diesel vehicles. A new electric bus in the UK costs around £400,000 compared to diesel at around £150,000. Coupled with the need for charging infrastructure and potential grid upgrades, the electric transition will be a major financial investment for many operators. Moreover, just one electric bus can use as much power annually as 28 typical UK homes, so a large bus fleet may need as much charging potential as a small town! In cold weather, and on a hilly bus route, the heavy e-bus consumes its battery power far faster than it would otherwise, prompting government transport departments to look at ways of charging buses on route, e.g. at bus stops or via overhead cables. If public transport is going electric, then it needs considerable public and private investment.
It hardly needs saying that China has already gone down this route together with Belgium, Norway and Switzerland. Over 50% of bus sales in these countries in 2023 were e-buses. Globally, almost 50,000 e-buses were sold in 2023, 3% of all bus sales. Given their cost and the associated infrastructure, this is still impressive.
City buses are taking the lead due to their shorter daily travel requirements. In 2023, e-buses in the EU reached 43% of sales. The aim is to reach 100% by 2035. Cities across Latin America, such as Bogota and Santiago, have deployed nearly 6,500 electric buses to date. BasiGo, Africa’s largest electric bus company, has an order book of 350 buses, which represents almost 2% of electric bus sales outside of China in 2023, and aims to sell a further 1,000 electric buses in Kenya and 200 in Rwanda in the coming years.
In Japan, where you might expect huge efforts to electrify their public transport in view of their reliance on fossil fuels, the number of electric buses in 2023 was a tiny 252, accounting for only about 0.1 percent of the current 210,000 total buses. The limited sales of foreign-made (Chinese) electric buses in Japan can be attributed to concerns about after-sales service support, such as responses to malfunctions and supplying of replacement parts. Now a Japanese company - the Nihon Bus Association - has set a goal of introducing 10,000 electric buses by 2030. Will this be enough to cut emissions by 50%, the UN 2030 target? I'm not convinced and remain extremely concerned at Japan's lack of climate urgency across the board.
BYD electric buses in Cost Rica as part of a pilot project financed by the German Cooperation Agency.
ELECTRIFICATION OF BUSES
Title photo by Alexander-93 - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=137312071