Solar power (photovoltaics - light energy to electrical energy) comes third in the global league table of renewable power, generating over 1,400GW in 2023 with China generating 600GW of that total. Around the world, there are around 2,500 coal-fired power stations (CFPPs), each producing on average 1GW. Solar power in 2023 is generating the equivalent of over half the CFPPs.
Figure 1
Fig. 1 looks encouraging with many of the middle-to-high income countries rapidly increasing the share of their electricity generated by solar power. However, as of 2023, this share is, for most countries, a small fraction of their overall electricity generation and for some, less than 2%.
Riyadh in Saudi Arabia receives 3,200 hours of sunshine a year compared to England's 1,400 on average. The Middle East, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa could, in theory, generate all their electricity from solar. Saudi Arabia currently generates 58% of its electricity from natural gas, and most of the rest from oil. Solar - 2%.
The stand-out country on Fig. 1 is Australia, a vast country with annual sunshine figures comparable to Riyadh. As discussed in the coal section of this website, Australia is a coal-rich nation struggling to free itself from the grip of fossil fuels and the contribution that this has made to its economy. Without doubt, Australia could rely almost exclusively on solar energy for its electricity but the transition from coal is not an easy road. However, over the past five years, there have been encouraging signs that the transition is well underway (see Fig. 2) .
Figure 2
Both Fig.1 and Fig. 3 also paint an encouraging picture of the growth of solar power in Australia with the country having the highest per capita electricity generation from solar in the world. This is principally due to residential and commercial roof arrays rather than large-scale solar fields.
Figure 3
Australia's target of reducing carbon emissions by 43% below their 2005 level by 2030 appears to be within reach....according to the Australian government. With 60% of its electricity generated from fossil fuels (2023), this is still a monumental task and a number of environmental bodies in the country point out that the progress made thus far is nowhere near the reductions required to reach 43%. Moreover, there are no signs that Australia intends reducing its coal and gas exports to Asia. The depressing fact is that these exports will result in carbon emissions somewhat greater than the emission cuts that Australia makes at home. Glass half empty just when it was looking to be topping up. A familiar climate change story.
Australia is certainly not short of available land on which to build its solar farms. In countries with a greater population density, one might suppose that space on the scale required is in short supply. Think again. According to current estimates, to provide all of the UK's electricity from solar farms, only around 0.6% of the total land area would need to be allocated, which is roughly equivalent to less than the land currently used by golf courses. In view of the suffering I have endured in the past playing a round of golf, I can think of no better place to site solar farms. (Apologies to the 8.2 million UK golfers.)
One major obstacle to the growth of domestic solar energy has been the cost of panels. These have fallen year on year since their introduction. A three bedroom house would need around ten panels costing in the region of £8000 including installation and save the household around £600 annually. The problem with solar power, like wind and to some extent hydropower, is that output is highly variable. There are times during the summer months when the output will exceed demand and at other times, vice versa. A storage battery can overcome the problem but for an average three bedroom house, a 10kWh battery can cost upwards of £8000. Storing electrical power from solar farms requires a different solution. Read here for current solutions to this problem.
In conclusion, solar power is experiencing the fastest growth rate among renewable energy technologies. If renewables are to replace fossil fuels by 2050, then solar will almost certainly make up the largest share. China are likely to remain the world leader in this respect. While only 7% of the country's electricity is generated by solar today, this is predicted to rise to a staggering 39% in just 10 years.
For many lower income countries starting out on the solar power journey, integrating large amounts of solar power into the electricity grid will require large infrastructure upgrades at considerable cost. This will require significant foreign investment from developed nations. Without this, developing nations will continue to pursue a fossil-fuel based economy, and +3°C will become a certainty.